photo: neuroticjose
The first major analysis of the potential impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles has found the widespread adoption of such cars and trucks would dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and improve air quality. By 2050, plug-in hybrids, or PHEVS, could eliminate 450 million metric tons of CO2 annually – the equivalent of taking 82.5 million conventional cars, or a third of the nation’s current fleet – off the road. That would also cut oil consumption by nearly 4 million barrels a day. Assuming PHEVs hit the market by 2010, and depending on sales of the cars, the total reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050 would 3.4 to 10.3 billion metric tons, according to the study conducted by the non-profit Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council. The study was based on sophisticated computer modeling of the U.S. power grid and transportation system.
"What we’re talking about today is potentially a very, very large effect," said John Bryson, CEO of utility giant Edison International (EIX), during a press conference in Washington, D.C. this morning. Utilities like Edison, PG&E (PCG) and Austin
Energy have taken the lead in pushing automakers to get in gear on
plug-in hybrids.
Even if plug-in hybrids become the dominant form of transportation they would only spike electricity demand by five to eight percent, researchers said, because most car owners probably will charge their vehicles at night when power plants are idle or under-utilized. The study’s computer models considered various scenarios, from a high CO2-intensive grid to a greener one as well as plug-in hybrids with varying ranges and sales. But even if plug-in hybrids made up only 20 percent of the nation’s vehicle fleet in 2050 and the electric grid remained relatively dirty, greenhouse gas emissions would still decline by some 163 million metric tons annually.
The impact of plug-in hybrids on global warming will depend on the electric system, noted NRDC scientist Dan Lashof. "The key to utilizing plug-in hybrids is a cleaner power grid," he said. The greener the grid, the greater the greenhouse gas reductions as coal-fired power plants are displaced by renewable energy or begin to deploy technology to capture their CO2 emissions.
General Motors (GM) executive Tony Posawatz brought a plug-in Chevrolet Volt concept car to the press conference. The automaker is designing the Volt to run primarily on battery power and use other alternative fuels to extend its range. "We at General Motors are certainly very interested in this study," said Posawatz. "The potential for plug-ins, I think everyone recognizes, is tremendous."
Green Wombat 
2050?
Oddly enough, that’s about how long I think my 1990 Toyota Corolla will last…. the thing just wont quit!
I’ll probably be ready for a new hybrid by then. 🙂
There are a lot of pure plug-in electric cars available now. They cost about $10,000 but aren’t selling because customers are waiting for the plug-in hybrids which cost about $30,000. I think that some large companies that can use these available cars should buy them for their fleet so that individuals would have more confidence in them. I am referring to the ZAP and ZENN plug-in cars.
And how much will one of these cost? $40,000? $30,000? What is the MPG? Might as well buy a Honda Civic for $10,000.
Check out this US Carbon Footprint Map, an interactive United States Carbon Footprint Map, illustrating Greenest States to Cities. This site has all sorts of stats on individual State & City energy consumptions, demographics and State energy offices, State Taxes and more down to the local US City level…
http://www.eredux.com/states/
I agree that PHEVs are an enormous energy savings opportunity and one of MANY solutions that need to be employed to combat global warming. However, I’m not quite sure why this report would be characterized as the “first major analysis”? Check out the research released by the US DOE and PNNL last year that came to very similar conclusions. I’m sure there’s lots more out there.
http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=204
http://www.pnl.gov/energy/eed/etd/pdfs/phev_feasibility_analysis_combined.pdf
Re: The future cost of PHEVs. A quick, back-of-envelope calculation tells me that a $25K car today, assuming 3% inflation, would sell for $80K. Ahhhh, the miracle of compounding. Of course all things, including wages, would rise by that same inconceivable amount, and it’s very hard to think in Monopoly dollars, so it’s probably best to use constant-dollars when speaking of 2050.
“And how much will one of these cost? $40,000? $30,000? What is the MPG? Might as well buy a Honda Civic for $10,000.”
What is the MPG of a car that doesn’t use fuel? Well, it’s 1 Gazillion miles per gallon.
While I’m sure the report’s data is rigorous, I think it is flawed in thinking that the grid is what is holding back plug-ins. Selling cars that people want to buy is extremely difficult. And as it stands, there is no information showing that the population at large wants a plug-in car; let alone weather or not they can perform adequately compared to gasoline vehicles. I made the challenge to a PHEV expert to make a plug-in Chevy Tahoe and show me it can get through a winter in Minnesota for a family of hockey players (five winters would be a better test). And tow a boat behind it. Then I’ll concede that PHEVs have a broader future.
Secondly, I think it’s presumptuous to think that people would plug-in to the grid at night. That isn’t true with cell phones or computers so I don’t see why it would be true for cars. Furthermore, most people don’t have access to electricity for their cars (think of apartment inhabitants in Beijing). There are ways to mitigate this, but that must be factored into a feasibility study.
And lastly, the cost. You won’t convince me that a stack of batteries is ever going to be cheaper than making a gas tank. And at the end of the day, that’s who is going to have to buy cars. Those who are barely wealthy enough to afford them.
So while I concede that this report is accurate with regards to the technology, the purchase of a car is mostly not related to the technology. These are lifestyle decisions that individuals make and PHEVs require to big of a lifestyle change for them to compete head-on with a fuel-based car. At least so far.
As we discuss this topic – and it is certainly worth discussion – we should be both optimistic and critical. At the end of the day, we are talking about people. And that’s something no one can speak for everyone on definitively.
So, how far does a car have to go on batteries alone before people will change their lifestyle to drive it? 200 miles? 250? 350? For most drivers the difference between 10 cents per mile for gasoline, and 3 cents per mile for electric means about a $740/year for the difference of slower “fill ups” and having to remember to plug the car in at night.
Why not have a all electric suv?
Put motors inside the wheels, add a gadzillion tons of batteries to it (your standard SUV weight anyway) and use it in the winter in Minnesota for a family of hockey players (five winters would be a better test). I mean, with global warming and all, Minnesota is going to have a pretty damn short winter soon.